Expect a thinner fall 2026 and a heavier fall 2027. Industrial Info Resources reported on September 17, 2026 that planned U.S. crude-unit outages for fall 2026 were about 144,000 b/d lower than plans made in February, while fall 2027 was about 283,000 b/d higher; work on 10 crude units at 7 refineries moved from fall 2026 to fall 2027[1]. Spring 2027 is roughly unchanged (−9,000 b/d)[1]. Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery – North America’s largest – reportedly pushed a major turnaround including its biggest crude unit into fall 2027[2].
01.Why maintenance is being pushed back
Refiners schedule turnarounds years ahead, but they can move them when margins are unusually high. In 2026, a Middle East supply disruption raised crude and product prices and refining margins, and U.S. plants ran near maximum rates[1]. Taking a unit down in that market means giving up some of the year’s best profits, so several operators deferred work.
The pattern was already visible in spring. From January through May 2026, U.S. refiners shut an average of about 470,000 b/d of capacity for maintenance, compared with about 700,000 b/d in the same period of 2025 and 900,000 b/d in 2024, according to Energy Aspects data reported in June[2].
Turnarounds are driven by inspection intervals, catalyst life and equipment condition. A unit can run longer, but the work still has to be done – usually with more scope, not less, once it is opened up.
02.The numbers, season by season
| Season | Change in planned U.S. crude-unit outages | What it means for crafts |
|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 (Sep–Nov)[1] | About 144,000 b/d lower than February plans | Fewer and shorter crude-unit jobs; more competition for available calls |
| Spring 2027 (Jan–Apr)[1] | About 9,000 b/d lower – essentially flat | A normal spring season; book credentials early |
| Fall 2027 (Sep–Nov)[1] | About 283,000 b/d higher than pre-disruption plans | Heavier season; likely competition for welders, boilermakers and riggers |
Source: Industrial Info Resources, comparing plans as of Feb 1, 2026 with plans as of Sep 9, 2026. Figures are national, not Gulf Coast only, and cover crude units, not every process unit.
The IIR figures are U.S.-wide. But the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) holds roughly half of U.S. refining capacity[3], so most of the swing lands on Texas and Louisiana plants and on the contractors that staff them.
03.What we know about specific Gulf Coast plants
- Motiva Port Arthur (TX). Reported in June 2026 to have delayed a major maintenance project by about a year, including work on its biggest crude unit, putting the turnaround in fall 2027[2]. Motiva has not published a date.
- LyondellBasell Houston (TX). Permanently shut in early 2025, so it no longer generates turnaround work. Its crafts have moved to other sites.
- Everyone else. Operators rarely publish exact turnaround dates. Treat any list that claims to know them as an estimate unless the company itself has said so.
Unplanned outages took out an average of 170,000 b/d during the 2026 spring season, compared with 300,000 b/d in 2025[2]. Emergency repairs can create short-notice calls even in a light season.
04.How crafts can plan around a light fall and a heavy 2027
- Fall 2026: widen your radius. Petrochemical, chemical and power-plant outages do not follow refinery margins in the same way, and Louisiana and Texas sites often hire from the same pool.
- Before January 2027: renew anything that expires. Safety-council orientations are generally annual, and a TWIC takes time to process. See our plant-gate credentials guide.
- Spring 2027: a normal season. Contractors usually start calling in January for February–May work.
- Fall 2027: the heavier season. Welders with current procedure qualifications, boilermakers and certified riggers should expect the most demand. Keep your test records and cards organized.
- Know who hires: our contractor directory lists 12 turnaround contractors with their official career pages.
05.Signals to watch between now and 2027
- Refining margins. If margins fall back, some deferred work could move earlier again.
- Company earnings calls. Refiners often mention turnaround spending and timing when they report quarterly results.
- EIA weekly utilization. Falling Gulf Coast refinery utilization in spring or fall usually means maintenance is under way[3].
- Hurricane season. Storm damage can force unplanned repairs and reshuffle schedules.
06.Frequently Asked Questions
Will fall 2026 be a slow turnaround season on the Gulf Coast?
Lighter than planned. Industrial Info Resources reported planned U.S. crude-unit outages for fall 2026 about 144,000 b/d below February plans, with 10 crude units at 7 refineries moved to fall 2027.
When is the next big refinery turnaround season?
Fall 2027 looks heavier: planned crude-unit outages were about 283,000 b/d above earlier expectations as of September 2026. Spring 2027 looks roughly normal.
Why are refineries deferring maintenance in 2026?
High refining margins after a 2026 Middle East supply disruption made it costly to take units offline, so some refiners chose to run longer and move work into 2027.
Is Motiva Port Arthur having a turnaround in 2027?
A June 2026 report said Motiva delayed a major Port Arthur maintenance project, including its biggest crude unit, by about a year to fall 2027. Motiva has not published a date.
What should turnaround hands do in a slow season?
Look at petrochemical and power outages, keep credentials current for spring 2027, and prepare for heavier demand in fall 2027.
Sources
- [1] Industrial Info Resources — Some U.S. refiners deferring maintenance from 2026 to 2027 (Sep 17, 2026)
- [2] EnergyNow — US crude refiners are pushing run rates to maximum levels (Jun 2026)
- [3] U.S. EIA — Refinery Capacity Report
All sources accessed November 1, 2026. Fees, course names and schedules change; confirm with the issuing body or your employer before you pay or travel.